Updated bi-weekly
AI Capability Tracker
There is a gap between what frontier labs can demonstrate and what they’re allowed to ship. The Tracker measures that gap.
Public AI discourse is dominated by product announcements. The frontier is six to twelve months ahead of those announcements, and you can see it if you know where to look — research papers, hiring patterns, infrastructure spend, and the occasional unguarded conference talk.
This dashboard is my running estimate of the capability frontier across six axes: reasoning, agentic execution, multimodal perception, scientific discovery, code generation, and alignment robustness. The numbers are calibrated, not measured. Treat them as my best informed bet.
Headline Metrics
Frontier reasoning index
▲ +6 this month
Agentic execution index
▲ +11 this month
Multimodal index
▲ +2
Alignment robustness
▼ -3
Watchlist
What I’m tracking now
Lab A: long-horizon agents
Hiring profile suggests Q3 release window.
Lab B: scientific reasoning
Quietly leading on chemistry benchmarks.
Lab C: alignment
Public statements diverging from internal posture.
Open-weights frontier
Six-month lag, not eighteen.
Recent Signals
What just moved
May 30, 2026
New reasoning benchmark
Saturation reached on prior benchmark in under four months. Measurement infrastructure is the new bottleneck.
May 18, 2026
Compute contract leak
One frontier lab signed a multi-gigawatt deal. Training run implied: 10x current SOTA.
May 03, 2026
Eval lab spinout
New independent eval shop, ex-frontier-lab staff. Worth following.
Other Dashboards
Geopolitical Power Map
Power doesn't move at the speed of headlines. This dashboard tracks the slower, more durable shifts.
Narrative Heat Map
Every news cycle has a foreground and a background. The Heat Map tracks both, and the gap between them.
Woo Index
The line between 'fringe' and 'mainstream' moves more than scientists like to admit. The Woo Index tracks the moves.
UAP Dashboard
The UAP story is no longer a fringe beat. It's a disclosure timeline, and the timeline has accelerated.
The Maze Files
Some stories don't break — they leak, slowly, through the cracks. The Maze Files are where I assemble the pieces.
Quantum Physics 101
Quantum physics is the closest thing modern science has to a mystical text. This dashboard treats it that way — carefully.